Baltic Earth Working Group on Multiple drivers of Earth system changes

• How can societies improve preparedness for low-probability, high-impact wild-card events, and to what
  extent can modelling tools assess their ecological and social consequences and provide decision
  support for risk management and adaptation?
• What is the readiness of the Baltic Sea for developing Digital Twin Ocean applications, and their potential
  added value for ecosystem management?

The Industrial Revolution, along with subsequent technological advancements, economic growth, urbanization, and globalization, has dramatically transformed the world. These developments have brought immense benefits to humanity but have also led to harmful and detrimental impacts on ecosystems. Despite numerous national
and international policies and legislation aimed at controlling pollution, overfishing, and biodiversity loss, many aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems remain in poor condition. Identifying effective management strategies is still hindered by our incomplete understanding of the complex interactions between different drivers and impacts.
The overall aim of the group is to increase our understanding on the multiple interactions between the human and natural systems that drive pollution, overuse and degradation of aquatic environments, with a specific focus on the Baltic Sea and its catchment area. Building on earlier Baltic Earth projects and contributions, RT6 adopts
a forward-looking perspective that introduces holistic systems thinking to support more reliable forecasting and better-informed decision-making. The group concentrates on drivers, interactions, and historical developments that contribute to the current environmental challenges in the Baltic Sea region. It addresses key knowledge
gaps that limit effective environmental management. The work contributes to the further development  of coupled models that are used to predict how marine, terrestrial, and atmospheric systems may respond to future trends, hazards, or policy interventions, thereby strengthening the scientific basis for sustainable management of the Baltic Sea environment.

The working group under RT6 organises meetings and workshops to facilitate collaboration, exchange knowledge, and inspire new research directions. Current activities centre on two main themes. The first examines whether existing tools and approaches are adequate for anticipating and managing future environmental hazards in marine and coastal environments. The second explores the potential of Digital Twin Ocean concepts for the Baltic Sea, evaluating current readiness, identifying gaps, and assessing the expected benefits for modelling, forecasting, and ecosystem-based management.