Changes in cloudiness contribute to changing seasonality in the Baltic Sea region

Abstract

In the Baltic Sea region, a significant increase in solar radiation has been detected during the past half-century. Changes in shortwave irradiance are associated with atmospheric transparency and cloudiness parameters like cloud fraction and albedo. One of the most important reasons for day-to-day changes in cloudiness is the synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation; thus, we look for reasons for solar radiation trends due to changes in atmospheric circulation. We analysed regional time series and trends from satellite-based cloud climate data record CLARA-A2 for the Baltic Sea region in 1982–2018. As the rise in solar radiation depends on the seasonally averaged values of total fractional cloud cover (CFC), surface incoming shortwave radiation (SIS) and occurrences of circulation types were analysed. We show that the shift in seasonality connected to the earlier accumulated sums of SIS is at least partly explained by the changes in synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation.